Game 4, move 24: Herd 2-2

[diane]

Position ID: 7/YAAFB2txkBAA
Match ID: UQmpABAAGAAA

Stog danced with 3-2, herd has plenty of options with this roll...let me know if there is one you would like added, with reasons.

[Krazula]

Spoiler

I voted 11/5 3/1*. I'm not confident that this is the best move, but I doubt its far off.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The biggest problem we face is stog anchoring, so I say let's try to prevent that.  Hitting loose is too risky, so I like the point switching play - 5/2(2)*. Who cares if he anchors on the 5? By the time he anchors, we'll be past him.  With the point switching play, his only hope is to roll a joker 55, and even that won't be enough unless he rolls it right away.

Note that if gammons counted, I wouldn't make this play.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's choice comes out on top with gnu 0-ply rollout.  Other moves are not too far behind - it's hard to make a serious blunder in this position.  My point-shifting play is 14th best and a .04 error.




    1. Rollout          11/5 8/6                     Eq.:  +0.942
       0.971 0.377 0.019 - 0.029 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.942 CF  +0.942
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    2. Rollout          8/2 8/6                      Eq.:  +0.930 ( -0.012)
       0.965 0.376 0.016 - 0.035 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.930 CF  +0.930
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    3. Rollout          11/9 8/4 8/6                 Eq.:  +0.927 ( -0.016)
       0.963 0.354 0.016 - 0.037 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.927 CF  +0.927
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    4. Rollout          8/6 3/1*(3)                  Eq.:  +0.923 ( -0.019)
       0.962 0.386 0.013 - 0.038 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.923 CF  +0.923
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    5. Rollout          11/5 3/1*                    Eq.:  +0.923 ( -0.019)
       0.963 0.431 0.017 - 0.037 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.923 CF  +0.923
      [0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

    6. Rollout          11/9 8/2                     Eq.:  +0.921 ( -0.021)
       0.961 0.329 0.015 - 0.039 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.921 CF  +0.921
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    7. Rollout          8/4 8/6 3/1*                 Eq.:  +0.921 ( -0.021)
       0.962 0.428 0.016 - 0.038 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.921 CF  +0.921
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    8. Rollout          11/9 8/6(2) 3/1*             Eq.:  +0.919 ( -0.023)
       0.961 0.445 0.018 - 0.039 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.919 CF  +0.919
      [0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

    9. Rollout          11/7 8/6 3/1*                Eq.:  +0.918 ( -0.025)
       0.963 0.440 0.018 - 0.037 0.004 0.000 CL  +0.918 CF  +0.918
      [0.001 0.007 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

   10. Rollout          11/5 4/2                     Eq.:  +0.918 ( -0.025)
       0.959 0.318 0.017 - 0.041 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.918 CF  +0.918
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

   11. Rollout          11/9 8/6(2) 4/2              Eq.:  +0.915 ( -0.028)
       0.957 0.342 0.019 - 0.043 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.915 CF  +0.915
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

   12. Rollout          11/9 3/1*(3)                 Eq.:  +0.912 ( -0.031)
       0.956 0.393 0.012 - 0.044 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.912 CF  +0.912
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]

   13. Rollout          11/7 8/6(2)                  Eq.:  +0.907 ( -0.036)
       0.954 0.380 0.017 - 0.046 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.907 CF  +0.907
      [0.001 0.006 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

   14. Rollout          5/1*(2)                      Eq.:  +0.905 ( -0.038)
       0.952 0.319 0.008 - 0.048 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.905 CF  +0.905
      [0.001 0.006 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.001 CF   0.001]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923695915 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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