FFM17 Game 3 Move 18 Herd to play 45

[Julia_H]

The back men stayed put last time, will they again?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I added 16/7 as an option.  4s are duplicated and his board won't be this weak again.  Definitely worth considering.

The thing is, with an even race we're not out of the woods if we avoid being hit, so I don't think running is the right idea.  That said, I won't be surprised of 16/7 comes out on top.

I'll stick with the adage "don't leave a shot in a holding game" and play safe.  I like 9/4 5/1 better than piling up checkers on the four and stripping both outfield points.

[close]

[KDP]

Spoiler

i would play 9-4, 5-1.  we still dont want to leave a shot trying to clear the 16, so they stay put.  burying a checker on the ace is better i think than stacking an additional checker on the 4.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

I'm not leaving a shot with the race close as it is, and so many hit and cover (one) numbers for el_micho. Of the safe moves I prefer 9/4 8/4 to keep our checkers in play and I think stripping both outfield points is actually an advantage, as it allows us to clear either one depending on the dice. Also, 5/1 sort of forces us to cover the acepoint blot, burying a second checker in an inflexible position. If we leave the acepoint blot, we could get in trouble when el_micho decides to run later, as we may not be able to launch a succesful attack. Last buit not least, with high numbers we are likely to run from 16, so the spare on 8 doesn't seem that useful.

9/4 8/4 for me.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's play comes out on top. 


XGID=---bBCB-CC--b---Baaca-bab-:1:1:1:54:4:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|          X  O  O |   | O  O     O  O  O |
|          X       |   | O        O     O |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|          X  X    |   |    X             | +---+
| O        X  X    |   | X  X  X  O       | | 2 |
| O        X  X    |   | X  X  X  O       | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 118  O: 118 X-O: 4-1/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹    9/4 5/1                      eq:+0.331
      Player:   70.39% (G:10.52% B:0.37%)
      Opponent: 29.61% (G:3.68% B:0.08%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.326..+0.335) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 52 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    9/4 8/4                      eq:+0.290 (-0.041)
      Player:   68.45% (G:9.03% B:0.45%)
      Opponent: 31.55% (G:3.79% B:0.09%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.285..+0.294) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    16/11 8/4                    eq:+0.277 (-0.054)
      Player:   70.76% (G:12.04% B:1.33%)
      Opponent: 29.24% (G:6.60% B:0.22%)
      Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.272..+0.282) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    16/11 9/5                    eq:+0.270 (-0.060)
      Player:   70.34% (G:12.11% B:1.15%)
      Opponent: 29.66% (G:6.50% B:0.20%)
      Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.265..+0.275) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    16/11 5/1                    eq:+0.232 (-0.098)
      Player:   70.49% (G:12.00% B:1.19%)
      Opponent: 29.51% (G:8.46% B:0.40%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.227..+0.238) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds

    6. Rollout¹    16/7                         eq:+0.178 (-0.153)
      Player:   69.73% (G:11.41% B:1.19%)
      Opponent: 30.27% (G:10.34% B:0.26%)
      Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.172..+0.183) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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